How to navigate the coming changes in the markets while keeping your family and financial goals in view.
Investments: Pay Attention to the Tension
Hemingway once wrote that bankruptcy happens “gradually, then suddenly.” Markets often move the same way. You can watch a long period of quiet where neither side gains ground in a tug-of-war. Then, in a moment, the rope snaps in one direction.
Our role is to watch the tension building in that rope so you can make informed decisions rather than reactive ones.
Inflation and Growth: The Economy Pulls from Both Sides
The recession many predicted never surfaced. Growth remains solid, yet that same strength can create new inflationary pressure. Tariffs are raising the cost of goods. A tight labor market and slower immigration are keeping wages elevated. And as the remaining provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire in 2026, additional fiscal effects may ripple through the economy.
Pulling the other direction is a surge in productivity driven by artificial intelligence. Increased output per worker, more available housing units, and abundant domestic energy are helping keep certain costs contained.
Which side of this tension will give way first? No one knows with certainty. We monitor both sides so you understand how shifts may influence your long-term plan.
Growth and Valuation: Momentum Meets High Expectations
Markets have enjoyed a powerful run, yet valuations are now near levels last seen in the late 1990s. Strong corporate earnings support those valuations, but prices assume companies will continue performing near flawlessly. If expectations cool, volatility could rise.
This is not a reason to panic. It is a reason to stay disciplined. Investors focused on balance, quality, and patience can still find meaningful opportunities while recognizing that all investments carry risk and uncertainty.
Other Sources of Tension
Several additional forces may influence markets in 2026, including the strength of the U.S. dollar, the fragility of the shadow banking system, and ongoing housing affordability challenges. How these tensions resolve could affect families in different ways. We will keep you informed as the landscape evolves.
Planning: Adapting With Purpose
Tax law changes and economic shifts will continue shaping how families plan in the year ahead. New rules may affect charitable giving strategies, Roth conversions, business planning decisions, and approaches to depreciation. Each situation is different, so understanding the tradeoffs is key.
Cybersecurity remains a core part of every financial plan. Protecting your information and digital life is inseparable from protecting your assets.
In the second half of 2026, our planning focus will expand to Aging With Dignity. Families often tell us they want clarity and confidence as they navigate later-life decisions. Preparing for the financial, emotional, and logistical realities of aging helps reduce uncertainty and supports the kind of future they want to create.
Family: We Are Families
Inspired by Sister Sledge’s famous line, “We are family,” our 2026 theme centers on the strength and connection that comes from approaching wealth as a family, not as individuals moving in separate directions.
This year, our emphasis is on holistic, multi-generational planning. Clear communication, shared understanding, and alignment around values help families reduce conflict and increase confidence. When family members work together, decisions become easier and outcomes often feel more meaningful.
This theme aligns closely with ideas Scott explores in his upcoming book, Slipstream, which looks at how families can move with greater ease through life’s financial and emotional headwinds. As the book launches later this year, we’ll be offering insights that complement the planning conversations already happening within our FourThought community.
We look forward to walking this path with you in 2026, helping you navigate tension with calm and guiding your family toward connection and joy.
Happy Trails to you and yours.
Disclosure
FourThought Private Wealth is an investment advisory firm registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or expertise. FourThought Private Wealth is owned by FourThought Financial Partners, LLC, also an SEC-registered investment adviser.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forward-looking statements are based on current conditions and may change without notice.